| Good study, badly analysed IMHO. If we presume the virus was still in exponential mode, then the 328 not showing symptoms could easily be those that had only just caught the virus. Also you need to know the age distribution before trying to extrapolate rates to normal populations. “As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent” Edit: here’s the study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v... I think “quarantined” was not individually quarantined, but that the ship as a whole was quarantined. ONE SURPRISING THING: high ratio of asymptomatic cases for 70+, whereas most 20-30 year olds are symptomatic: that could explain a lot about why death rates seem absurdly low for below 40 year olds - sampling error because most 20-30 show symptoms. |
Very interesting if that turns out to be fact.