[taiwanboy]

Game over is an exaggeration. There’s 3.4 trillion sideline cash. China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the last month and will take months to recover, on top of exploding debts. Japan and Germany was in recession before coronavirus hit.

On the other hand, US was growing a steady 2% and had record low unemployment before this. If US can flatten the curve, with only ~3000 cases thus far, US will recover quickly and come out way ahead. And the sideline cash will rush into US

[mNovak]

Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high.

Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. Depending on the model, the expected number is orders of magnitude higher.

[barry-cotter]

> Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high

I live in Shanghai. It normally takes about two weeks for things to go back to normal after Lunar New Year ends, which was two months ago. Things are not yet back to normal. Maybe 30% of office workers are back at work, 50% maximum. Gyms, bars, restaurants are almost all still closed. The dental hospital is still closed. You can basically write off February and at least half of March for economic production.

[appleiigs]

If you write off 2 months out of 12 months, that's a 17% decrease.

[onlyrealcuzzo]

I think he was talking about the current situation, not the full year perspective.

How is that any different than saying 2 months out of a decade is 1.7%??

[appleiigs]

He has no source. In another comment I pointed out the stock asian market only decreased 20% at the max.

[taiwanboy]

I said China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the LAST month

[appleiigs]

Shanghai and Hong Kong markets were down 20% at the max.

[Supermancho]

> Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections.

That's exactly what it means. 3000 cases of positively identified infections in individuals, if you want to get more wordy. Some of those have recovered, some have died. Still the number is over that today.

[all_usernames]

3000 cases tested positive but from what I know, we're barely testing.

Here in California as of today -- if you have a cough, and a fever, you will not be tested unless you have had international travel or known contact with a victim. This I know because I've spoken to two doctors and a nurse through Aetna.

[digitaltrees]

You don’t have an accurate sample size if you don’t measure. Based on the growth rates over time in every other country, the US should have way more cases. There are only a few thousand because we aren’t measuring.

FYI the governor of Ohio estimates 100,000 people in Ohio are infected. So there is that.

[gremlinsinc]

He's way off, he's a Republican and more cases = better for them, because that means this has a CFR of < 1%... my guess would maybe be more like 100-1k, but that doubles in 6 days to 200-2k, then 300-3k...etc... in 20 days it could be 100k though.. but the hospital's would be extended beyond belief, and I haven't heard reports of that yet.

[llampx]

Technically it means minimum 3000 cases, probably more .

[Supermancho]

Cases are recorded. If it's not in a medical record, it's not a case. Technically, the reference was to ~3000 but someone then wanted to dispute that cases was not the same as infections. The number is irrelevant. If it's not known for sure, it's not a case and it's not a known infection, medically. I don't understand how factual correction gets downvoted, but here we are.

[digitaltrees]

This is a pedantic word splitting argument. The relevant measure is number of people infected no the number we happen to know for sure because we finally got around to testing. If we had South Korea’s level of testing then maybe your argument would warrant breath behind words, under the current circumstances save your breath.

[Supermancho]

> This is a pedantic word splitting argument.

No, it's a correction.

>> > Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections.

This statement is factually incorrect.

> The relevant measure is number of people infected no the number we happen to know for sure because we finally got around to testing

That is irrelevant to the response I gave. It seems to be a popular interest today, in trying to clarify a concept, which is unrelated. I am done engaging with this derail.

[deelowe]

What are we doing to flatten the curve? I keep seeing the us getting compared to Italy.

[aksss]

Well systemically remember Americans are out-of-the-box more “socially-distanced” than Italians. We all commute one person to a car, we have an outsized sense of personal space. We are less community oriented by and large.

[gremlinsinc]

tell that to the people riding the subway...or lining up at the bars.

[taiwanboy]

Closing down schools, banning large gatherings, setting up drive thru testing, ramping up test kits next week, letting employees to work from home, closing borders to China and Europe (25k cases), etc

[deelowe]

Does that stuff help? Did Italy do that? Im seeing tons of people on IG using this time as a means to take vacations.

[Goladus]

Does that stuff help?

Yes, if practiced as intended, which there is no guarantee.

Did Italy do that?

Perhaps not as quickly as they should have. The rest of the world is learning from Italy's experience (they should have been paying closer attention to China, but that's another story)

Another thing to realize is that these numbers you are seeing are WITH CONTROLS. Sure, "only" 3,000 Chinese have died. Maybe it's more than that, it's hard to trust Chinese numbers. But even at 2x or 3x, that's far cry from the millions it could have been, had China not both imposed extreme controls to limit the spread of the disease AND allocated emergency resources to healthcare.

Some models show realistic scenarios where 5 million Americans die within a year, if the virus is allowed to spread at its maximum rate.

[deelowe]

Didn't one model show over 100M?

[Amygaz]

No.

That would imply 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate of 15 (close to measles), and a mortality rate of 30% (close to Ebola).

If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.

[Amygaz]

No.

That would implies 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate 15 (close to measles), and a mortality of 30% (close to Ebola).

If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.

[notatoad]

Yes, it helps. China had Hubei province on lockdown for the last couple months and that's a big reason that they have been able to control the spread.

Italy should not be looked to as a model of how to handle this.

[deelowe]

Was China's lockdown similar? All I saw was the propaganda video of people being welded into their homes which was later debunked.

[nitrogen]

As long as you vacation in places with few other people around, that is actually a really good way to spend the time.