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by randomsearch 2289 days ago
> 7% mortality rate

Please don't use such misleading figures. Spreading fear is dangerous. This number is known as a "naive case fatality rate", with the emphasis on naive. And you're even quoting just for one country - cherry-picking.

The UK CMO has said the mortality rate for COVID-19 is likely 1% or less.

Please, act responsibly. The situation is serious and difficult enough.
2 comments
danenania 2289 days ago
No one really knows how the number will turn out. There are factors that could push it down: lack of testing, lots of mild cases; and factors that could push it up: the disease takes a long time to either recover or succumb to, so many of those who will end up dying from it haven't died yet.

Resiliency of healthcare systems also clearly has a major impact. It might be well under 1% in a "first world" country where hospitals can keep up, and well over 10% in a "third world" country where they can't.

While a 7% mortality rate certainly isn't some kind of objective fact, it's unfortunately not out of the realm of possibility for us in a worst-case scenario where the healthcare system is completely inundated. It's better to face up to that possibility than downplay it even if it scares people, because we urgently need people to act so it doesn't get that bad. While I agree that people shouldn't fear-monger, it's far more irresponsible at this point to downplay the risk than to (arguably) overstate it.

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throwGuardian 2289 days ago
The only person taking anything I said out of context is you. I've been very specific about the 7% estimate being unique to Italy, replete with a source. I've never claimed that to be the overall wordlwide mortality rate, so read before accusing someone.

> Please, act responsibly ..

I suggest you practice what you preach, and read someone else's well intentioned, informed opinion without attributing malice or intent to spread falsehoods.

Most of all, the false narrative that a universal health care system somehow handles pandemics any better is clearly being proven wrong in the case of Italy, which is what I was trying to point out

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