[gus_massa]

I just noticed that the simulation does not have a field for the total size of the population. The initial state is 5 sick people in a population of 5000.

The initial grow is exponential until the logistic part of the curve kicks in. The current grow is something like 25% daily, so a x10 in the population is a delay of the peak of 3 days or something like that. It would be more days if we flatten the curve. (With the initial values in your simulation, the peak is at 60 days. For a big city with 1 million people, the delay is like 2 weeks.)

It's clear that this is a very simplified model, but they are useful to get a feeling of how the parameters affect the epidemy.