[raynguyen]

The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic.

Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of cases where people get affected explode once again?

The question is when will this virus go away? (if ever). Will everybody catch it eventually? Will the panic fade and Corona be just another (and much deadlier) strain of the flu?

[cl42]

That’s actually not correct, and the point of the simulations is to show that. By social distancing, you reduce the likelihood of everyone getting the disease. The use of social distancing brings the probability that everyone gets infected at some point closer to 0.0 but doesn’t make it 0.0. It’s possible to have a result where you either have people who were never infected, or ones who are fully recovered.

That’s what they’re driving at.

[totalZero]

The major error with the model used in the article is that, in real life, all the points will eventually start to move again.

[dmarchand90]

A key notion is that the maximum capacity of the health care system is limited. Yes everyone will get sick, but we want to keep the total sick at any one time within healthcare limits.

https://www.old.reddit.com/r/coolguides/comments/fglwbc/cool...

[ravedave5]

That's not true, look at the light blue area in the distancing models.

[fogleman]

To be fair, the # of infected never died off completely (the simulation didn't run long enough)

[ysleepy]

It is still hard to grasp that the entire human civilization will be infected with this not yet fully understood virus.

What if it makes everyone infertile? Real Children of Men scenario.

The measures taken are optimistic, but when everything is one the line, you have to make pessimistic decisions. First avoid human extinction.

Making bets with human kind as the wager are immoral in the highest order.

[shintakezou]

What if it gives the survivors the strength to resist or fight back something else? If we think about it, human (and not human) very ancient history must be full of these interactions, and our evolution is a consequence also of this kind of thing. Only recently we know how to "protect" ourselves. But if we are in the what-if domain... what if letting it go make us a biologically better being? What if it by chance will give us the protection against some kind of tumor? What if its overall effect, not counting the deaths, is positive and not negative like making us infertile? What if.... We can't know. But we'll see one side of the coin when we'll have defeated this threat. (Which is not an existential threat, anyway, i.e. it won't make us go extinct)

[timcederman]

Influenza A started as the Spanish Flu. It likely won't go away - instead either vaccination will control it to much smaller levels, but more likely a less virulent form will evolve and join the other 4 common coronaviruses as another endemic virus.

[rsynnott]

> The question is when will this virus go away? (if ever).

Probably never. It seems fairly likely there’ll be a vaccine in the next couple of years.

[Igelau]

> just another strain of the flu

That's like saying humans are just another type of salmon.

[shintakezou]

"Another kind of snake", you mean!