[helen___keller]

> only temporarily correct

FWIW this is not uncommon with pandemics. For example, WHO[0] says "During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave."

For example, during the spanish flu, the second wave was far deadlier than the first. But there were additional factors (WWI and a mutation that made it more dangerous to the young).

This can continue until enough of the population has been infected that we have herd immunity. This is why there's long-term estimates of 20-60% of population being infected[1][2]

[0] http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseas...

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/europe/coronavirus-...

[2] https://www.axios.com/congressional-physician-predicts-75-15...

[kaiabwpdjqn]

So here’s my question. China seems to have done a good job locking down Beijing and preventing an outbreak there. They did not do a good job in Wuhan. Per what you have described above, doesn’t it seem probable that Beijing will see a resurfacing given that relatively few people were exposed to it in the first bout?

[helen___keller]

Seems likely to me personally but only time will tell. In any case it probably won't be until after the initial panic & quarantine, when regular flights and travel and economic activity resume