[3JPLW]

Not sure why this is getting downvoted. We're all on approximately the same exponential trend as Italy, just a few days behind. The US, for example, is looking to be 11 days behind. Do nothing and we'll end up where they are now.

https://twitter.com/EcolEpig/status/1237430984678703104

[lmilcin]

Exactly. It is already clear that it will not go away by itself. The more drastic measures, the sooner, the faster it can be managed.

I live in Poland. It seems most cases are connected with somebody who recently came from abroad. Closing borders may seem like a drastic measure but much less drastic that waiting couple of days and doing it anyway + much more.

My point of view is it is a bit foolish to slowly, gradually escalate measures. It would be probably wise cause of action with a completely new disease which we don't know yet, but it is not a new disease now. We saw what happened to China. We know it is difficult to control and if people are allowed to move it is neigh impossible to prevent from spreading.

[3JPLW]

Here's an updated thread from the same author with more plots, more countries, and a few more thoughts. Well worth reading.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237781162153717760.html

[ithkuil]

In absolute numbers yes. More 30d-ish of you account for difference in population size. Not sure which parameter is more useful since the spread doesn't occur with equal density