[unexpected]

I disagree here. Denmark is acting proactively and shutting down schools for 2 weeks. This is a "rip the band aid off early" type of move. By shutting down everything for 2 weeks, they effectively self-quarantine during the entire incubation period and will dramatically slow the rate of the virus.

China, on the other hand, did not do this, and they were forced to shut down schools for 6 months.

These moves are HARD and painful, but the key to stopping a pandemic is acting overly aggressive and far-reaching. The USA is not doing nearly enough. We're going to be Italy in about 2 weeks.

[0xfaded]

I live in Denmark and have been following this way too closely. I think we will be Italy within the next two weeks. Until today people have been completely unconcerned. But in the last three days the number of detected cases has jumped from 37 to 92 to 264 to 516. Nobody was taking this seriously until today, and there's just no way this hasn't already spread across the country undetected.

[acqq]

The number of "detected" cases is influenced by the testing capability of those performing the tests. In a few days the real average "growth" rate will be clearer, but until the effects of some strong enough measures start to affect the numbers nobody can expect anything much better than what we see in Italy -- the curves across the Europe have "similar" growth:

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237781162153717760

or

https://twitter.com/illandancient/status/1237857213621907456

[0xfaded]

Sorry for not being clear. The point I'm making is exactly that people have been complacent due to the low numbers, primarily sure to inadequate testing.

[chasd00]

for the two weeks as of day one of the changes. What if the virus shows up on day 15, the day after things return to normal? Will they stay shutdown for another two weeks?

[Athas]

Yes. The PM made clear that the two weeks were for now, and might be extended, modified, or amended with further restrictions.

[gotstad]

The virus will show up afterwards but could already be slowed by then combined with fewer infections from people returning from abroad. But they will have to see simply.

[rasz]

>on day 15, the day after things return to normal

two weeks is when you will start entering really bad phase, not returning to normal. I am guessing ~100 dead in Denmark by April.

[rasz]

>effectively self-quarantine

no such thing

>China, on the other hand, did not do this, and they were forced to shut down schools for 6 months.

where did you get that 6 months number from? considering Virus started in January and its March now.

>These moves are HARD and painful, but the key to stopping a pandemic is acting overly aggressive and far-reaching.

there is nothing aggressive or far-reaching in those moves, Poland enacted similar measures yesterday and every expert agrees its not enough and too late.