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by sydd
2295 days ago
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The issue is that this wont be contained anymore, it wont be over, we fucked up. Lets say that a country, for example Sweden with its 500 known cases and 10M population goes into a total lockdown for. A few new cases emerge and after a few weeks of no new infections they open up everything again. But since other countries are still infected, they will be reinfected within days. The only way to stop it would be if the whole world goes into lockdown for a month or so, but that wont happen. We will have to live with no mass gatherings for 1-2 years, until someone comes up with a good vaccine |
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In Wuhan, they got it down to 0.3 with the huge lockdown and also aggressive testing and out-of-home quarantine. We will need a period of that to get the case count down to near zero.
Then it's possible to let up, but just a bit. People will need to wear masks and wash their hands a lot, but if R0 is say, 0.8, each new case leads to just a few more cases and then it dies out instead of exponentially growing. That's the flip side of an exponential function.