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by Tepix 2298 days ago
It's spreading in Australia where it's summer with cozy 30°C
2 comments

85 cases in Australia. And how many of those are imported?

In a binary sense, yes it “is spreading”. Even an R0 of 0.1 is “spreading”. But there is hardly enough data to say it is spreading widely in Australia.

The virus spread in summer/tropical vs winter/non-tropical regions is orders of magnitude different. But this is also not definitively causal. Just extremely highly correlated.

Yup, the counter to it is India. With almost all of the 43 cases imported even after more than 17000 tests seem to indicate that it's not spreading there (it could be a variety of factors including under-testing).
Is there community spread in Australia at this point or are most of those cases imported or directly related to an imported case?
There does seem to be some secondary spread in Australia however this seems to be from close contact with people who have been overseas. We are a little late to the game having established effective screening and information sharing early On. There is a expectation that the next few weeks will show a marked increase in community spread.