[tekkk]

Hah not a crash? Well it kinda is, and if it keeps going further down it will definitely cause a recession. The oil price drop was a huge punch in the gut, and I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer. Or well any oil production that can't compete with these prices.

[bluGill]

Almost nobody is drilling new oil wells, they stopped last year sometime. Almost nobody because there are still investors keeping one skeleton crew running just so they have expertise for when the oil price recovers.

Once a well is drilled the cost to drill the well is a sunk cost. You keep pumping oil if the cost to run the pumps is less than the price you get. Most people with oil are large enough to shut down some wells to keep the price up a bit - they harm their own profit in the short term though and still need to sell enough oil to break even.

[foota]

OPEC has failed to reduce output to prop prices up, and they've crashed as a result.

[bluGill]

Nobody being willing to make large cuts is different from nobody making cuts. The US is not a member of OPEC, nor are several other oil producing countries: they don't follow OPEC but may still reduce output.

There is rumor OPEC isn't cutting production because they believe they can undercut their competitors and put them out of business - I don't think that is their motivation, but it is something that can't be ignored.

[unlinked_dll]

A crash over the coming days wouldn't cause a recession so much as reflect the start of one.

[csomar]

> I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer

Probably go under?