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by scarejunba 2301 days ago
This is mindless hysteria. And I suspect you know it. On the other hand, maybe you do, in fact, believe it. Let's make a good faith attempt to test how truly we believe in our predictions. I predict that the Gates Foundation permitting home testing in Seattle will not result in Seattle's public transit system only permitting COVID-19 tested individuals by the end of 2020. In order to back that, I will put up $1000 at even odds. Reply here to take me up on it.

What's your prediction and will you back it like I did?
1 comments
glofish 2301 days ago
Hysteria: emotional excess.

Not sure why you assume "hysteria" on my side. My opinion could be wrong, but that does not make it a hysteria. Isn't the fear of COVID more a hysteria?

As for your bet - it is overly specific - there could be thousands of similar, equally negative outcomes that would not be in Seattle, or a bus company, etc yet could all be triggered the same way.

I would be most worried of people that want to infect others about finding out anonymously that they are infectious.

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scarejunba 2301 days ago
The Gates Foundation is only issuing home testing kits in Seattle so it's hard to argue for elsewhere. However, I'm comfortable negotiating the terms. What are yours? I'd like to have a conclusion within a reasonable time so no bet lasting 50 years or anything, but otherwise, let's hear your offer.

EDIT: Due to old comments, I'm rate-limited on this thread so I actually cannot respond (sorry!). I'm interested specifically in the statement about the bus.

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glofish 2301 days ago
my offer is that in two years we look back at this and a reasonable majority of health professionals will say:

"you know that home testing by Gates was not such a good idea, overall it caused more harm than good"

My view is that is a dangerous idea to have untrained, panick people decide if they are sick or not. Too many things can and will go wrong.

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