[d4t4]

This study makes a comparison of the age distribution in reported Covid-19 cases vs. the distribution of ages in the Chinese population. I think this approach can definitely provide insight however, there’s one assumption that this study uses which will definitely bias the fatality rates being estimated.

> We chose to fix to 100% the reporting rate of infected individuals that have symptoms and are aged 80 and more, and estimate the reporting rates in other age groups relatively to that of older individuals. If further data, coming from a study in the general population, shows that this assumption is violated, this would lead to an overestimation of the CFR in our study.

I find it hard to believe that 100% of cases in individuals over 80 will be reported. It seems like any estimation of fatality rate at this time is going to be guesswork without more systematic sampling of the population.

I’m not trying to minimize the danger of Covid-19. It seems like caution to prevent further spread is absolutely necessary.