[ericb]

I have fairly low confidence in the high end numbers, because there's a chance the US would "wake up." Your low number bet seems like a layup! There is something appalling about "rooting" for death that doesn't sit well with my values though.

All that said, I still mostly want to see your work. This isn't my specialty, and if you have well thought out optimistic numbers they would make me and a lot of people feel better--they would relieve a lot of anxiety.

[dnautics]

I'm a scientist by training, so all I'm gonna say is that numbers don't exist in a vacuum. There are lots of undiscussed factors that to my eyes go towards inflating the numerical values being discussed, for example, there being a huge festival with relatively poor sanitation and a high transmissibility likelihood in the city with the primary blast radius and a general difference in hygeine culture between China and the US, and the US being less population dense in general. In my circle, probably about 10% actively self-label as germophobic, and even I as a relatively dirty person have started more meticulously washing hands and self-segregating while feeling under the weather this season.

In the us, we have signs in restaurants reminding employees (and customers) to wash their hands. Now in all honesty probably only 80% do in normal times but certainly more are now, and in any case, it's part of the active day to day thinking (or even better, it's part of letting the monkey drive) in our culture.