| So this is the plausible worst case - unfortunately I see no reason why it should happen differently if we don‘t manage to keep R0 way lower for a while than it currently seems. It‘s growing exponentially, so one week we‘ll still have a working healthcare system, the next week it will be overwhelmed by the low percentage of people needing O2 or breathing support for a few weeks. We‘ll improvise and then there will be next week with a double number of cases. And a further diminished number of healthy people working in health care. Then our healthcare system will just collapse and those people will die that would otherwise have recovered after a few weeks.
It‘s a combination of exponential growth of infections and accumulating numbers of people who need treatment for a while. As I understand this about is the current situation in Iran, it just happened earlier there. We‘ll try a lot, maybe find a way of better treatment to mitigate this a little.
This will happen until mid april, next year we‘ll have a vaccine, maybe. Oh, and this is what I fear for my country. We have public healthcare without copay, you can’t be layed off for being sick and if you’re sick (or quarantined) you’ll still be payed. This is going to be a wild, depressing ride and it will come ‚suddenly‘. |