[backupcavalry]

I have a hard time believing China actually has it under control when they've already been caught fiddling with their number of infected / dead constantly. That, and WHO has been spending all of their time trying to avoid offending China.

[dirtyid]

China is opaque so you have to look at oblique indicators, in this case school has resumed. Kids going back to school indicates the leadership has some confidence that the party thinks the crisis is near the end. Even though kids are at low risk, after SiChuan earthquake school scandal, the political cost of risking children's health for political points is too high even for China.

E: Also Xi visited Wuhan recently, and the annual two sessions meeting is happening in a few days while events are being cancelled around the world. It's the biggest annual political event. Xi is basically over if we get a bunch of infected kids or politicians like in Iran. I guess we'll see if it's confidence or calculus.