[kire2345]

So am I reading this correctly that for example the strain in Lombardy Italy/CDG1/2020 (GISAID EPI ISL 412973) from 20.02.2020, has its origin in the strain collected in Bavaria Germany/BavPat1/2020 (GISAID EPI ISL 406862) from 28.01.2020.

So the outbreak in Bavaria that was thought be contained somehow made its way to Italy? Or do these kind of interpretations not make any sense?

[cstejerean]

That seems like the right interpretation. The second case in Washington State appears to be a descendant of the first case on January 19, so we’ve also had about 6 weeks of undetected spread here from a case that was believed to be contained. It goes to show that “contained” doesn’t mean much when you only test people with symptoms but you know that the virus can spread asymptomatically.

Early on the official guidance was that asymptomatic spread while possible is not playing a major role in global transmissions. Now we’re seeing the results of that position.

[icegreentea2]

I think it's important to understand that while it's definitely not good that asymptomatic spread is a thing, it's worth considering what the real alternatives where.

For example in the USA, by only testing the highest risk categories, the positive rate is still only ~3%. Increases in the population screened will eventually lead to decreasing the positive rate. In that sense, broadening the criteria by which we do testing will lead to dilution of utility of resources. That's not to say that the choices we made were optimal, but rather to say that scaling our testing to the point where we are catching a significant portion of asymptomatic carriers may not have been the best choice.

Remember that both test consumables and testing capability are not unlimited.

You can model this out at home with different asymptomatic carrier rates and different transmission rates and find the optimal resource allocation for each case.

[consp]

Or people having just a mild variant which does not cause fever and airway problems. If they think it is something else, or don't care, it is just as well a transfer risk as asymptomatic individuals and in my opinion at least as likely.

[core-questions]

Well, what are you supposed to do?

If you have the snuffles, are you supposed to react like it's COVID, or react like it's just one of the million other colds and such going around every winter until things get bad enough that your symptoms concern you?

If you react like it's COVID, then what - go to a hospital or otherwise burden the health system? All they can tell you is to quarantine yourself, unless/until it gets bad enough that it's worth testing you.

[prox]

Home quarantine is one of the best things right now, so you don’t infect others. Right now a lot of countries ask you to call your doctor, he will come do a swab.

Another one is risk factor, like any ties with people who are infected or people who came from high risk areas.

[shados]

> If you have the snuffles

If you just have the sniffles you probably shouldn't panic and go to the ER, but you should stay the hell away from big conventions and not go to work, at least within reason.

I work for a company that has unmetered sick leave (that you can take without people judging you), great VPN/work from home policy, and will actively shun people who come to work sick (that is, no one is even remotely close to being pressured to come for butt in seat time).

And people still come to work sniffling and coughing. I keep having to kick them back home day after day. Like, wtf, seriously.

[core-questions]

I agree 100% for myself - I always self quarantine and work remote when I have a cold. However, you gotta remember that the vast majority of people still need to be physically present and can't work remote; and most of them have far more limited sick leave policies, sometimes including only partial pay, etc.

[shados]

For sure. I did add clarification that even some people with very generous sick leave policies and who can work from home still go to the office for no good reason.

Actually, as I'm typing this Im hearing someone coughing and sneezing a few rows from me, and yet again Ill have to talk to them and maybe even their manager, because here we're super privileged and there's exactly zero reason to come in sick.

I agree not everyone has that privilege, but if those who DO actually exercised it, it would at least have SOME impact on the spread.

[sunstone]

Apparently 88% of people with COVID have fever (WHO study in China). If you have fever then be very careful. If you have fever and a dry cough be even more careful. If you have a stuffy nose and an itchy throat you're very likely negative but stay home in any case.

[all_blue_chucks]

This variant has killed two people already, so it's not too mild.

[borkt]

If it has only killed two (either one or both patients at a nursing home) after spreading undetected for 6 weeks, then there is reason to hope it is a less fatal variant.

[all_blue_chucks]

It takes several weeks to kill. It just killed 4 more people overnight.