[throwanem]

No more so in Africa or in New Zealand [1] than in Finland, which is represented in this dataset. I'm not really seeing the basis for whatever conspiracy theory the original parent comment seems like it wants to point toward, is what I'm getting at here.

These are the early stages of what looks to be a pandemic of a disease at least an order of magnitude, possibly several orders of magnitude [2], more lethal than seasonal flu, which is no picnic already. Isn't that enough to be worrying about, all on its own?

[1] https://coronavirus.zone

[2] CDC headline numbers for the 2019-2020 flu season, vs. the commonly given 2% lethality guesstimate.

[nostromo]

Estimates are dropping down from 2% as we discover lots of cases that were mild or asymptomatic.

The New England Journal of Medicine says it may likely be considerably less than 1%:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

People should remember the context of a respiratory disease in China. 2/3rds of men smoke, and air pollution is common. Things also spread faster there as it’s densely populated with lower hygiene standards than developed countries (for example: spitting is still common in some areas).

[jfoster]

Suppose you're right about reasons why it spreads fast & lethally in China. How do you explain the fast spread and lethality outside China?

[Enginerrrd]

The two "fast"'s are relative. Epidemic dynamics are likely to differ in different countries for a bunch of reasons.

And, it does appear to be less lethal outside of China. That may be because healthcare systems are not yet overwhelmed, or it may be because of the smoking and pollution exposure in the different demographics. It is probably even both of those things.

[zaroth]

The latest numbers from the WHO say that although CFR was much higher in January, a new case in China in March will have a CFR of 0.7%.

They are guessing this shift could be due to a combination of reduced transmission load and refining treatment protocols.

[croissants]

What do you mean "no more so than in Finland"? The link at [1] says Iran has 1501 cases and 66 deaths, while Finland has 6 cases and 0 deaths.

[throwanem]

I mean it's no more widespread in Africa or New Zealand, which are not represented in the genomic dataset charted here, than in Finland, which is represented. I've edited the earlier comment to clarify that, since the surrounding context evidently does not suffice on its own to do so for everyone.