| So: 1. There are cases in over 80 countries now. 2. Evolutionary studies suggest it's been spreading about 5 weeks longer than the first recognition phase discoveries suggest. 3. The incubation period is 2 weeks. 4. A number of individuals contract it with few symptoms and transmit it far and wide. The most reasonable conclusion is that it's going to hit almost every country hard, come back in August in the northern hemisphere, and possibly once again after that. It could be stopped at about this point, but that would get in the way of corporate profits, people flying to and fro during a pandemic and people who go out in public while sick and don't sneeze or cough into their shirt, so 10-100 million people "have to" die... potentially more numerically but less percent-wise than 1918. The time to work remotely is now, because no one can see or tell who is infected. And after the first pandemic wave, it will be necessary to maintain vigilance for roughly 1.5-2 years. See also: CDC Response Framework [2014, PDF, 511 KB, 24 pages] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/mmwr-rr6306.p... http://coronavirus-realtime.com PS: The top 5 existential threats are: a. Pandemic b. Antibiotic/antimycotic resistance c. a. and b. combined d. Climate Change Emergency e. Nuclear War (Turkey attacking Russian troops in Syria, North Korea) The biggest thing to most reduce the risks of a.-d. is to end meat agriculture, but that will never happen because of rationalized, tribal selfishness and political concerns. |
I understand that a new virus is scary - but the level of fear, panic and anxiety is quite disproportionate. Keep your hands clean, keep your level of health up - work from home if you can as that will also help with other killers such as pollution and car deaths.
In fact, as I type this, one has to wonder if the measures put in place will result in less global deaths - not due to the efficiency of containing Cornovirus but because everyone is traveling less and factories are producing/polluting less, restaurants are being avoided and more people are cooking at home which may result in healthier diets too.
[ref: https://www.who.int/gho/road_safety/mortality/traffic_deaths...]