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by qqqwerty
2307 days ago
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I think the fed realizes that they can only do so much in a situation like this. Adjusting interest rates is a very crude lever, and it won't really have much of an impact on something like a sudden unemployment spike due to supply chain disruptions and quarantine impacts (at least not in the short term). My main concern is that the White House might put pressure on the Fed to take action, possibly forcing a misstep. It's possible we see a big spike in inflation due to supply constraints, and it feels like monetary stimulus could actually make the situation worse. Or, if the concerns regarding unsustainable debt levels prove true, we could dive head first into a recession, possibly pushing us into a deflationary spiral. At that point, fiscal stimulus would probably be the only real option, but the current administration seems like they would not be capable of getting that one right (more tax cuts would likely be one of the least effective forms of stimulus, and the 'tax reform' bill has left us with a lot less ammo on that front). I guess what I am getting at, is that I am not really concerned about the Fed. I am way more concerned about the government bungling their response. They cut taxes and pressured the fed to lower interest rates when the economy was doing fine against very vocal warnings that it would be much harder to deal with a future recession. And now that we are faced with a potential recession trigger, I am not very confident they will get this one right. |
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