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by volkl48 2306 days ago
From what I've been reading, it's looking like the most obvious immediate impact is a supply-side crunch, not demand-side.

Things are not getting made/made at normal rates, and that's starting to ripple up through supply chains.

Can't buy the car stuck on an assembly line because the widget plant for some key piece is only fulfilling 1/3rd of orders.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/upshot/coronavirus-recess...

And for that, you're still right that there's no financial intervention to fix it.

3 comments

My hypothesis has been a supply crunch simultaneous with a demand crunch. We are seeing substantially altered consumer behavior in China. If they are drastic, these events can make lasting changes in people’s willingness to spend money.

If you spend months inside, avoiding gatherings, worrying about your health and that of loved ones, not going to restaurants, postponing discretionary purchases do you immediately snap back to pre crisis levels once it’s over?

What’s the economic activity in locked down areas of Italy right now?

What is the possibility that US escapes unscathed given clown car response at the federal level?

Exactly. I had to buy a new washer and dryer today, and any brands from that side of the world are weeks away from delivery right now.
There will be substantial demand side effects as well. People that live in times of uncertainty stay liquid as much as they can. So if they can put off some major purchase that is more likely to happen now than before.