| This guy is math challenged: >Let's do some simple math here, folks. Assume you bought an entire company that had $100 in revenues and 50% profit margins. And that you paid just two times revenues, or $200. It would still take you four years to break even with revenues holding steady. The company he describes is in fact a fabulous buy, with a PE of 4. His mistake is to completely discount cash flows past the fourth year. You still own the company after four years, so unless it is set to self destruct, it is worth a lot more than the $200 you paid for it. A non-bubble growth tech company with those margins would typically be worth $1000+. He's also ignorant of history. Great companies like Google and Microsoft had very high PEs in their early years, which many investors balked at. Those who could stomach the valuations made a mint. Another way to value companies is to look at comparables that aren't affected by the bubble. For example, Yahoo has been bouncing between 20 and 30 billion -- a valuation that has held up for years. Facebook has similar revenue potential but much better execution and vastly higher growth. Valuing it at 2-3x Yahoo looks reasonable in my book. He may well be right that some of the companies in the article are overpriced, but he makes a very weak case for his argument. |