[dredmorbius]

At least in China, somebody knew the ground truth.

As much as I criticised China's initial response, their eventual containment has proved highly effective.

The US (and numerous other countries) are point-by-point repeating China's initial failures.

This will delay control by days. Growth is presently doubling every 3 or so days, increasing by an order of magnitude every week. Delays will increase consequences directly proportionate to those rates, both infections and deaths.

As it is, if Rest-of-World (RoW) response is where China was ~22 January, we can expect to see 100x present cases (~2 orders of magnitude) and ~500x present deaths (~2.5x OOM). Very roughly.

[drclau]

What was your critique of China's measures?

To me the extreme measures were just an indication that they understood better than they let the rest of the world know what they are dealing with. I mean, they locked down entire cities at who knows what costs, and they were _disinfecting the streets_. Or maybe they did let everyone know via official channels. Frankly, I was surprised that WHO didn't treat this as an emergency much earlier.

[dredmorbius]

I criticised the initial response, largely from ~mid December 2019 - ~21 January 2020, specifically attempts to shut down any and all discussion of the outbreak initially, as well as downplaying reports. See from three weeks ago this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22274827

In terms of the actual epidemiological response, most especially since ~22 January, limiting travel, events, large congregations of people, and shutting down workplaces and schools, has been absolutely appropriate. Those measures have received some criticism, including by Chinese citizens. I don't feel those criticisms are at all warranted.

The information environment is difficult to navigate. I'd argue that China's erred on the side of too much control, as it tends to do, but in general, after 22 January, the process as a whole has worked, judging by results. The challenges are certainly staggering, particularly at China's scale. The avoiding of mass panic and protest is commendable.

The fact that other governments -- Japan, Korea, Iran, and the United States, notably, and all but certainly North Korea, are repeating many of the same mistakes (or multiplying them several-fold, in the case of Iran and PRK) -- shows that this is highly typical.

I'm also quite disappointed by the international response, and that of the United States quite specifically.

One of the first references I posted to HN following news of the Wuhan outbreak was Albert Camus' 1948 novel, The Plague. The story it tells, of society, government, and individuals, in the face of pestilence, is timeless. And contains valuable lessons:

https://antilogicalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/the-pl... (PDF)

HN submission: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22150237

[swsieber]

> At least in China, somebody knew the ground truth.

I wouldn't go that far, judging from reports of death certificates with "Unknown viral pneumonia". But I agree that China seemed a little more on top of it... once the world got wind of it.

[dredmorbius]

China didn't know what it was dealing with, how to assess it, or who to test. It did the legwork on all of that, for which the rest of the world should be grateful.

Test-kit availability has been constrained throughout the epidemic, and yes, that means that full confirmation has been only partial and lags outbreaks. But information I've seen is that once China was aware of what it was dealing with, it was testing as broadly as it could.

South Korea seem to be taking this even further, with many thousands of tests within a few days in outbreak areas. The US CDC have refused doctors' requests to test suspected patients and control the availability and use of test kits. That's simply fucking insane and stupid. (Again: the UC Davis Medical Center instance: https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/contenthub/novel-coro...)

Amateur hour is over.

[swsieber]

Oh, don't get me wrong. The U.S. totally botched this, and it seems like it has had one of the worst responses of countries I've followed closely.

[dredmorbius]

I'm not going to say flat out the worst. But relative to capabilities, knowledge, and experience, the furthest from potential.

Otherwise agreed.