The optimistic case would be how swine flu played out, where initial estimates for fatality where in the percentage range but ended up in the per mille dimension.
However, for SARS 1.0, it was initially estimated to have a fatality of 2% - the final number was over 10%.
It's simply too early to tell.
Unfortunately, the latest WHO report suggest there isn't that big of an iceberg of undetected cases, which would sadly mean a higher CFR.
> Most cases with mild symptoms are not even reported
This is outdated. Dr. Bruce Aylward said in a WHO conference this week that the Chinese tested 320,000 samples in Guangdong and they are not seeing huge transmission beyond cases found clinically. It's at 47 mins in this video: https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM?t=2810
> so the real number is lower than 1 percent in all likelihood.
I disagree. When we calculate the SARS-CoV-2 CFR properly using
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)
using the latest data we get
2,924 / (2,924 + 39,605) = 7% CFR
That's much more in line with the original SARS CFR of around 9%.
"The claim was quickly challenged by an infectious diseases expert who serves on a committee that advises the WHO’s health emergencies program.
Gary Kobinger, director of the Infectious Disease Research Center at Laval University in Quebec, said it would be highly unusual for there not to be mild or symptom-free cases that are being missed. He pointed to the fact that outbreaks have popped up in countries far from China — including Iran and Italy — because people with mild infections were not detected and traveled to other places.
'There are mild cases that are undetected. This is why it’s spreading. Otherwise it would not be spreading because we would know where those cases are and they would be contained and that would be the end of it,' said Kobinger, who insisted that mild, undetected infections cannot be ruled out until people who haven’t been diagnosed with the illness can be tested for antibodies to the virus.
'As long as we do not have good serology data, I think that it is completely speculative to say that there are no undetected cases,' Kobinger said."
What Dr. Aylward says makes no sense and reads more like a PR fluff piece designed to praise China to keep them happy, and as Kobinger points out he's probably wrong. From the same press conference he says this "If I had COVID-19, I’d want to be treated in China."
Which is obviously bullshit.
As the specifics of the 320,000 cases. It wasn't a serum antibody test, so it wouldn't show people with low viral loads or people who recovered.
Also this is in Guangdong where the infection was potentially quickly contained, and if you'll notice the death rate is much lower in Guangdong.
"If I had COVID-19, I’d want to be treated in China."
China probably knows how to best treat this, but as a patient you could either get that treatment, or get turned away or even get welded in your apartment apparently.
The problem are the people themselves. I have yesterday tried to persuade a colleague to cancel / postpone a conference in Lisbon with participants from all over Europe, including Milan in Italy. He didn't even take me seriously and other colleagues from Spain were making jokes about how all of their relatives are currently ill or they have Italian friends for a visit. Besides, half of my colleagues are from Italy, one of them just told me relatives from Piemont are planning to visit her next week.
With that attitude it is impossible to contain the virus. For all I know, I might already have it. I'm at a loss of how to react to such people, who seem to be the majority in Portugal. Working result-oriented in Academia I could in theory isolate myself for three months, but in practice this would be professional suicide.
No, the assessment is realistic. The conference is in about one month. If the coronavirus is transmitted there, which is not unlikely, then it can take several weeks until someone gets symptoms, then another month until that person is no longer a transmitter. Not showing up to events during such a long time is unfortunately not a good idea for someone who doesn't have tenure. Maybe this changes once the official evaluation of the situation has changed. Right now it is "There are no cases in Portugal". Our university hasn't even provided hand sanitizers yet, and there is no official or inofficial statement from the administration about Covid-19.
I meant what you said about the 3 months could be a suicide for your carrear.
About the rest, I'm from Portugal and I agree - I believe there are cases in Portugal for some time and probably will be confirmed the first ones next week.
Within a month the currently hidden outbreaks will have become visible and we'll probably have measures similar to what Italy and South Korea are doing now in the whole of Europe.