[greatpatton]

Yes in Switzerland and all the new cases originated in different place of Italy. So it seems that in Switzerland when people are back from Italy and having symptoms, they look for help and are tested. But as it is very unlikely that all these people were in contact with the 650 people detected in Italy (most of them were back from Milan, Verona, and not from the lockdown cities, my fear is that Italy is facing a different order of magnitude of cases. And that's why I was interested in potential model to simulate this.

[Erikun]

Not sure about Italy, but Imperial college in London did estimates in January for how many in Wuhan were infected based on internationally infected people and the catchment area of Wuhan airport. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/194815/coronavirus-outbreak-...

[greatpatton]

yes I just heard from the team that did the sequencing of the virus in Italy they now believe that the virus has been circulating there for weeks without being detected...