[twotwotwo]

With many viral respiratory bugs, symptoms appear a few days after infection, peak a few days after that, and then there's a long tail of sniffling and coughing. Deaths happening in the peak and recovery being declared nearer the end of the tail leads to the intuition that maybe deaths could cluster earlier than recoveries. Of course, I don't know how/when recoveries are being tallied right now and don't want to guess.

Bigger picture: lots of factors go into a good estimate, and epidemiologists are not new to mathematical modeling. When back-of-the-envelope math doesn't get the same prediction as the consensus models of what's going on, we shouldn't assume the epidemiologists are wrong.