|
|
|
|
|
|
by anonsivalley652
2307 days ago
|
|
|
It's difficult/impossible to put a specific probability (which would be an oxymoron) on any one particular person dying. The somewhat vague risk factors take time to accumulate from statically-larger samples if there were more deaths. We know it's a couple of orders of magnitude worse than the seasonal flu but less than the 1918 flu and the plague, hence the extreme quarantine measures to reduce its infectivity to essentially 0. Once quarantine goes into effect, it doesn't matter how infectious is a pathogen because it's dead because of math. |
|
|
Not at all. For example, if I flip a fair coin, I can assign a very specific probability to the event that I get heads.
> We know it's a couple of orders of magnitude worse than the seasonal flu
Maybe one order of magnitude. Seasonal flu is about 0.1-0.2% mortality in the US. The evidence suggests that covid-19 is less than 1% mortality.
> hence the extreme quarantine measures to reduce its infectivity to essentially 0
It doesn't need a high mortality rate to justify extreme quarantine measures. The fear is that it will become a perpetual thing, another seasonal illness like the flu. Even if the mortality rate were the same as the flu it would be worth taking extreme measures to avoid that.