[Hnrobert42]

Either A. the r0 is much higher due to asymptomatic spreading OR B. the serious complication rate is higher. It’s likely not both. If A. is true, the serious complication rate is likely overstated because there are lots of asymptomatic people who are getting counted.

[jacquesm]

The serious complication rate is ~20% or so of confirmed cases, that's pretty high.

[Hnrobert42]

But how do we know it is 20%? If R0 is higher than we think due to asymptomatic spreading, then we likely aren’t counting all the asymptomatic cases. If we did, it would result in a lower serious complication rate. That’s why I said it can’t be both.