[paulgb]

Ironically, when I considered the likely outcomes, the one that convinced me to stock up on food was not actual supply chain distruptions (which I see as possible but fairly unlikely), but that mass hording will lead to shortages (which I see as very likely).

[misterprime]

Kinda like a run on the banks. There may be no good reason for it, but it's still gonna happen.

[teddyuk]

You are part of the panic stocking problem

[lucasmullens]

How is buying food before the shortage contributing to the panic stocking problem?

[brokensegue]

The same way withdrawing from a bank you expect to have a bank run soon does? This is what causes bank runs.

[paulgb]

The difference is, a bank only has a certain amount of money, while a grocery store can turn over inventory on a daily or weekly basis. So if I stock up now before everyone else does, I can actually make less of an impact if and when there is an eventual need for everyone to prepare to stay home for a week.

[brokensegue]

Functionally the grocer has a limited supply also because there is only so much production/shipment capacity. I agree if you do it early enough your impact is minimal.

But if you withdraw early enough from a bank then the bank can in theory safely exit from its positions and become more liquid

[anfilt]

However, the problem is if you don't try to get stuff before or during the panic you get screwed yourself. Its why its a dangerous feedback loop. If you don't join in you lose/ get negatively effected by it.

Its kinda of a prisoners dilemma but at a larger scale.

[Recursing]

Shortages of what? Supermarkets in northern Italy have been restocking without problems, there is a shortage of N95 face masks on amazon, but they're not even proved to be useful for healthy people

[lancesells]

I grew up in a hurricane-prone state in the US. 95% of the time people stock up and panic and nothing happens. I'm talking about gas shortages and empty aisles in the grocery store. But the 5% where something does happen you wish you stocked up because you're not even able to leave the area because there is no gas. Not debating N95 masks effectiveness but I would rather be at least slightly repaired because things go south really fast when people get hungry.

[Recursing]

Maybe it's more common in the US as it's more sparsely populated? As in there are more potentially isolated cities?

The scenario you're describing doesn't seem plausible to happen in Milan

[munificent]

> Maybe it's more common in the US as it's more sparsely populated? As in there are more potentially isolated cities?

My impression is that Europeans generally don't know what real severe weather is like. A hurricane that happens to hit close to a population center while it has a strong eyewall is incredibly devastating. Think of it like a tsunami, windstorm, and a family of tornadoes all at the same time.

The wind will knock down trees which crash into houses, block roads, and take down power lines. That alone means most of your human infrastructure is gone. Ambulances cannot reach you, you cannot get out, it's dark, communication technology stops working, you may be overheating without air conditioning, food quickly starts spoiling.

I lived in Orlando when Hurricane Charley hit. Thousands of giant live oak trees were blown over. The drive from my house to my girlfriend's normally took ten minutes. After the hurricane, it took me over an hour to get there because I had to contend with billboards in the road, downed power lines, and enormous trees blocking roads everywhere. Many places were simply inaccessible.

If you are close to the coast, add a storm surge to that. Mass flooding surges through neighborhoods. A tide of opaque, dirty, water containing all manner of dangerous debris. Roads are washed away, houses collapse. People drown. During Hurricane Katrina, a common failure mode was people who climbed into their attic to escape the rising floodwaters, only to get trapped in there and drown when the water level reached the attic itself. (Since then, New Orleanians learned not to go into your attic during a flood unless you bring an axe to chop through the roof.)

Most hurricanes are not this bad. They lose energy quickly when they make landfall and their strength diminishes with distance from the center. But there are half a dozen hurricanes every year and when you throw that many darts at the Gulf coast, eventually some of them will hit.

[Recursing]

Thanks for the answer, it's very likely that it's mostly caused by the more likely extreme weather in the USA

The most similar thing that comes to mind is the last major earthquake, but even then I don't think stocking food would have been useful, the problems were rebuilding infrastructure and buildings, not shortages of stuff

[cycrutchfield]

"It can't possibly happen here!" says increasingly nervous man.

[Recursing]

Hi! Are you following me from the other thread? o.o

It's not "It can't possibly happen here!", more like "it hasn't happened in any place in western Europe in recent memory". We've had major earthquakes and stuff, but nothing that "stocking food" would have been useful for, (afaik)

[keiru]

Which brings us back to the matter at hand; devastating plagues have happened many times in Europe. This one is probably not going to be devastating, but we really don't know the effect of this disruption in today's society.

[jrs235]

There aren't shortages until there are. All seems normal until the tipping point. Don't go out and buy up 2 months of supplies in one swoop, unless you want to raise eyebrows and lead to the perception of shelves emptying and then causing it to come true. Buy a weeks worth of extra supplies every other day for a week or two.

[anfilt]

Mass hoarding is a supply chain issue. one in which the supply chain cant handle the peak demand. Whats worse about mass hoarding is it can cause feedback that amplifies it.