[infinity0]

The recent explosion in cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would seem to suggest that in fact perhaps the officials in Wuhan did not fuck up handling the early part of the epidemic, at least much more so that the officials in these other countries.

There are some indications of officials playing down the threat and lying, but this was also reversed quickly by higher levels of the same authoritarian government. Did this lying have a significant impact, more so than presumably-less lying in South Korea and Italy, that resulted in the same order-of-magnitude in explosion of cases, even though the world media was already on high alert?

Don't be so overconfident at fitting world events and a few selected media stories into your prejudicial ideological convictions.

[starfallg]

If the Wuhan authorities quarantined everybody that traced back to attending the mass dinners at the same early stage in the same way that the Italian and South Korean authorities are doing now, then the people infected in Hubei be at 60,000 or so now.

The quarantine came in too little too late to control the situation in Wuhan, and only helped to contain the virus in other provinces of China, not fully contain it.

[infinity0]

> the people infected in Hubei be at 60,000 or so now.

The people infected in Hubei are at about 60k or so now. Actually slightly lower. Were you trying to say something else??

60k is pretty impressive considering all the other apocalyptic "worse case" scenarios being published in various academic journals a few weeks ago based on "conservative models".

[starfallg]

Won't be.

And 60k is not pretty impressive considering that many people already died without a proper diagnosis and was not included in the official counts. There is no trust that the reported numbers are reflective of the situation on the ground - in fact it is likely to be the tip of the iceberg.

[infinity0]

It is impressive, Wuhan has 11 million people. Would you have done better?

> There is no trust that the reported numbers are reflective of the situation on the ground - in fact it is likely to be the tip of the iceberg.

The numbers are confirmed test cases, which will always be an underestimate of the true situation regardless of the government supplying the numbers. There's no indication to suggest that it's the "tip of the iceberg" especially since the "current case" numbers have been consistently decreasing for the past several weeks.

It rather seems that you've been so convinced by the sheer amount of anti-Chinese-government-propaganda, that even positive facts can't change your prejudice that everything they do is negative.

[rustymonday]

I don't know how you could conclude they did not fuck up when they imprisoned doctors who blew the whistle on the outbreak.

That's not to say other countries will fare much better. But China had by far the best chance at containment, and they blew it. And the rest of the world has to deal with the fallout.

[infinity0]

> I don't know how you could conclude they did not fuck up

I explained in my comment - the sudden increase in cases in Wuhan in January, was not that much worse that what we're seeing in S Korea, Iran and Italy right now. These latter countries are also less dense than Wuhan, and also had plenty of warning time. Nobody was imprisoned in Italy, yet despite that we still have several hundred cases today. This suggests that this single imprisonment didn't have a huge effect on the epidemic in Wuhan.

> by far the best chance at containment

What does it mean to have a "chance" at containment, and what makes one "chance" "better" than another "chance"??

> the rest of the world has to deal with the fallout

If you acknowledge there's a possibility that no "other countries will fare much better", why maintain such an accusatory tone? No government can control where an epidemic starts.

By your logic, if the epidemic had started in the US, the government would be at fault if it prevented the epidemic from spreading to any other countries? Is that what you're saying? That's an extremely high bar, probably unrealistic.