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by mr_isomies
2312 days ago
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Not buying into this sort of conspiracy theory myself, but since I'm reading some Cixin Liu I'll indulge in some creative thinking. - This is pure fiction: Seeing this as an offensive weapon, if it were indeed man-made, is a mistake imo. Right now the market is cratering, China is pretty much in economic lock down (which would have been impossible to enact otherwise), while being self sustained. Population of elders (i.e. non-working population) are being purged. Aren't we in the middle of an economic war between USA and China? China and the world, even? Who is gaining from this situation right now? Or rather, who is suffering less, from a medium/long perspective? If it does get to the States, with no healthcare safety net in place, the country will go through a lot of pain, economic and other. I think that by the end of whatever _that_ is, China comes out on top from a game theory perspective. It's a bit like the Schwabb vs Ameritrade commission cutting playbook: if we both suffer but you suffer more, I still win in the end. - Again, pure fiction. I do not subscribe to any of those views. I am not that cynical! Just a fun writing exercise. |
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The trade war has already been causing manufacturers to consider the wisdom of their supply chain strategies. China is currently an export driven economy trying to transition to a domestic consumption led economy but hasn't done so yet. Anything that leads manufacturers to put more of their capacity near their large markets in Europe and the US is very bad strategically for China right now.
This is a disaster for China if it causes a manufacturing shift out of China before they have made a consumer transition.