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by DanBC 2308 days ago
How many "well educated adults" can convert 1 in 1000 to 0.1%?

It's not just members of the public who don't understand stats, it's some doctors too.

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/health_stat...

This quote is from p61 but the whole thing is interesting)

> Note again the great difficulty large parts of the public, like the female veterans, have with translating small frequencies into percentages. Only 25% of the population could correctly convert 1 in 1,000 to 0.1%. Even among the highest education groups, at most 30% could solve this translation task. Lipkus, Samsa, andRimer (2001) even found that only 21% of well-educated adults could answer this question correctly.

You have prostate cancer. It's definitely cancer, this isn't a misdiagnosis.

Do you want the treatment, or do you want to do nothing?

This is a real choice faced by many men, in part because of the over-use of PSA testing.

https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/prostate/basic_info/benefits-harm...