[littlestymaar]

> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls?

Look at Italy right now.

> Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things.

Sure, but this has nothing to do with authoritarian states vs democracy. You'll find a ton of authoritarian states doing exactly the same. It's just a matter of who's the ruling class, and in most places in the world (100% of liberal democracies but also most authoritarian states), it's the business owners, so of course they will try and save their business before their people.

> Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this particular case that feature will turn out to be bug.

Western people aren't uncontrollable. The one who are, are the one who are pissed of by their plutocratic governments and have lost all faith in them. I'm pretty convinced that Switzerland will be fine, and I'm not surprised Italy is in the same kind of shit than Iran.

I'm French, and we've been lucky so far, but I expect chaos when it's going to start. The government has long lost all political legitimity here, and people absolutely distrust them, so I don't think they will not peacefully comply to government attempt to limit the propagation.

[bitreality]

Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it.

When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread, they will question the measures being taken. As time goes on, the West will become critical of government response and may be difficult to control.

In China when the government tells its citizens to do something, they just do it. They don't ask why. They don't deliberate on whether it's the correct choice. They simply follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

[gioele]

> Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak.

Here is the other thing with Italy: differently from other neighbor countries, they have been testing people without symptoms.

Numbers: until February the 24th, Italy performed ~8500 tests (mostly on people without symptoms, but that were in contact with confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected patients), while UK did ~6500 (focused on people with influenza-like symptoms), Germany ~1000 and France ~500.

This is better from a safety point of view (you get to discover all problematic patients earlier and you can quarantine them before they spread the infection even more). But is makes "your stats look worse" (cit. The wire) because now you look like the epicenter of the infection.

Guess what? The testing method has now been changed ("aligned") to what the other countries are doing, so that the numbers do not look that much worse.

Source: https://www.ilpost.it/2020/02/25/tamponi-coronavirus-italia-...

[kaffeemitsahne]

This is amusing to hear in light of all the "saving face" talk about China.

[tomp]

> until February the 24th, Italy performed ~8500 tests

How is this relevant? For all we know, they might have only tested 200 people by 22nd, when the panic (quarantine, news) first started.

[littlestymaar]

> In China when the government tells its citizens to do something, they just do it. They don't ask why. They don't deliberate on whether it's the correct choice. They simply follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

Sigh, this is so cliché… I don't know where you're from, but the “west” as the unified entity you describe doesn't exist. When it comes to authority and how people comply with the rules, France and Germany are more different than China and the US.

[onemoresoop]

> When it comes to authority and how people comply

This is a different matter, people will comply for their own safety. If goverments or other agencies send the right message things could be okay imo.

[Terretta]

> When it comes to authority and how people comply with the rules, France and Germany are more different than China and the US.

How so?

[paublyrne]

Can't comment on France, and of course it's a generalization, but in Germany people love to follow the rules. Just watch how people cross the road without looking left or right, but obeying only the light. Sometimes other pedestrians will shout at you if you walk across the road when the light isn't green.

[littlestymaar]

I find this (truncated) quote pretty funny and quite an accurate description of French's relationship with rules:

> in England, everything which is not forbidden is allowed, in France, everything is allowed even if it is forbidden

[jkaplowitz]

That isn't the experience in noticing here as a tourist in Berlin, where locals seem to cross against the light quite often. But yes, I realize Berlin is not the typical German experience.

[LargoLasskhyfv]

I'd consider it suicidal to blindly trust the lights, no matter if as pedestrian or bcyclist. But then i'm bicycling since 40 years plus in different parts of .de, always wary of every other traffic :-)

Can speak of Hamburg for about 15 years now, and since maybe about 10 years i have the feeling that at least 50% of traffic participants are absolutely insane, again no matter which mode.

[powerapple]

I don't like the way how you characterize Chinese people. The fact is that most of Chinese trust the government and believe collectively they are making the correct choice. Maybe we don't think the same way as you, it doesn't mean we don't think.

[squiggleblaz]

> But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it

Isn't slowing it the best we can hope for? I mean, I'd rather the pandemic slowly take its course so that there's maximum chance a ventilator will be available if I need one when I get it in six months time. If everyone gets it on the same day.....

[bryanrasmussen]

>containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it

If containment slows the virus then it might be wise to slow the virus if any of the following is true:

1. You expect to develop some treatment for it.

2. You think a slowly growing group of infected will allow you to study the infected and possibly discover a treatment (related to 1 but not exactly the same)

3. The virus is not expected to be a problem in the summer.

4. A slowly spreading virus means that you can better ramp up your facilities to take care of the infected. (related to 1 and 2)

[baq]

slowing down the virus is required while hospital capacity is being scaled up.

[vbezhenar]

Is it scaling up now? I live in Kazakhstan, we have huge border with China and a lot of people going through Kazakhstan transiting to other countries. I don't really see any scaling. I don't even see proper reporting, apparently we have no ill people. It sounds stupid and unrealistic, so nobody believe that, but officials say so. I'm prepared to get this virus soon enough, it seems inevitable. I'm young, so probably I'll survive, but I can't say the same about my parents. It's a stupid situation, really.

[mentat]

Thank you, I appreciate your perspective (and I think you're right)

[viraptor]

And while we're quite literally waiting for the vaccine to be created. The fewer people get infected the next month or two, the better.

[empath75]

I don’t know why people are assuming we can create a vaccine. There’s no vaccine for any other corona virus.

[gizmo686]

Due to lack of need. Creating vaccines for the common human strains of corrona virus would be spending a lot of effort to stop the common cold (possibly including a flu like seaaonal vaccine).

Work on SARS resulted in cadidate vaccines, but was abonded before human trials because of succsefull containment.

Work on MERS resulted in a vaccine that is currently showing succsess in humans.

Work on SARS-COVID-2 is starting from those, and already has canditate vaccines based on modifying ones we know showed signs of success against other corona virus.

Maybe this will turn out to be another HIV, where a virus proves ellusive, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that.

[viraptor]

Because we're already starting trials of one: https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

There's a bit of a description there about why this approach is different.

[empath75]

Obviously we’re trying, but I wouldn’t assume it’s going to be successful. It’s most likely that it won’t be.

[gnulinux]

Human coronaviruses are usually just common cold, so there was no need to make them before.

[pvaldes]

Maybe we should try having more common colds... In wonder if that would help to create resistance.

[bluGill]

There was once a vaccine for the common cold. However it only covered a couple of the 300+ different common colds and so it made no statistical difference.

[gnulinux]

Realistically, creating a vaccine will take in the order of years.

[CWuestefeld]

In the West, everything is up for debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

<sarc />I guess that's how we in the USA managed to reject the TSA full-body scanners and pat-downs.

It seems to me that most of us complained a lot, the government ignored us, and we knuckled under and complied.

[eirini1]

>In China when the government tells its citizens to do something, they just do it. They don't ask why. They don't deliberate on whether it's the correct choice. They simply follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

this is immensely racist btw

[s1artibartfast]

Probably. Is it accurate?

[bllguo]

No it is not. Incredible that you even ask.

[honestoHeminway]

>In China when the government tells its citizens to do >something, they just do it. They don't ask why. They don't >deliberate on whether it's the correct choice. They simply >follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for >debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

No, they do not. Chinas propaganda machine just tells you they do. That is why china- even with all its measures couldnt clamp down. Behind the waver thin authoritarian theater presented lurks the same chaos as in africa and india.