[jmnicolas]

> modulo the economic impact

This is a BIG modulo, China alone was already a disaster but now that we can see the rest of the world will be hit, the economic consequences will be disastrous.

2008 was a walk in the park compared to what may happen.

[wklauss]

> the economic consequences will be disastrous.

I seriously doubt it will. Once the panic subdues, things will go back to pretty much normal. Flu kills a lot of people every year without serious effects on the worldwide economy. You'll need a mortality rate significantly higher to make a dent in global supply and demand. Of course panic is the key word here. If governments impose severe movement restrictions it could disrupt the supply chain, but nothing about this virus seems to justify it. All the measures taken so far have been extreme because the goal was to stop worldwide expansion at early stages but that has already pretty much failed. Media will get bored of it eventually, vaccine will come a little later. World will keep spinning around.

[jmnicolas]

I know of 2 European car manufacturers that can't build certain cars because they don't have parts from China (Peugeot 208 and Fiat 500L).

This is just a small example, but every industry is hit.

[hiram112]

I think this is going to happen to a lot of manufacturers and industries in the West who are going to lose a lot of money in the short to medium term.

Looking further out, this and the general push back of the last few years with being so dependent on China, may be what further forces the West to start ensuring supply chains are not so dependent on China and the far East.

Companies may start seriously consider the true cost of doing business in China due to unknown events like this, and even more likely ones like military and economic confrontations occur (e.g. tariffs).

This might actually help juice the Western world for a few years as more manufacturing and supply lines are repatrioted.

[jacques_chester]

Viruses don't really pay much attention to economic rivalries and supply chains can be disrupted wherever they exist. As for "helping" the west, you're misunderstanding how gains from trade work.