[iliveinchina]

Your base case scenario should be that this will be globally widespread. The tipping point was when Iran became an epicenter. This is problematic because of its porous borders with countries with weak government.

The good news is the virus is not too risky for an individual, excepting those who are old and with pre-existing conditions. The bad news is that there will likely be a lot of deaths in aggregate, globally. The other bad news is that the virus has been highly disruptive socially and economically in every country when the infection rate has started to climb.

The best we can do is calmly make preparations for how things will change.

[puranjay]

The biggest impact will be on global supply chains. Also paints into sharp contrast our over reliance on China.

A side project I'm working on uses a key component from a Chinese manufacturer. Their factory has been shut indefinitely and we are 40 days behind schedule. My rep told me that while they've been working on the marketing/tech side of things from home, the factory can't open since workers are simply refusing to show up, and neither coercion or incentives seem to help.

[irq11]

People are eventually going to realize that the economic costs of this reaction far exceeds the cost of letting it spread, and things will slowly return to normal.

The only real uncertainty at this point is if the HN/reddit fever-dream scenario of overwhelmed hospitals plays out, outside of Wuhan.

So far, it has not.

[xbmcuser]

I think many people here on hackernews are being stupid that they are healthy adults so they don't need to worry. Even if you don't die you will be out of the work force for 2-3 weeks either because you are sick or quarantined. You could pass the infection to your children, parents Grand parents who might not be able to fight off the infection and die. Many people get flu vaccines or over the years have built up some immunity. This virus is new so no one has any immunity most people will get infected only some might die but the many that get sick will be out of the work force. You guys are aware of tech productions shortages but a lot of other goods like garments we wear come from China. If they are unable to start back up soon world will be facing shortages of many other items prices will start going up soon. Other countries have started hitting capacity production for garments as China is out and they still can't meet the demand.

[hurrdurr2]

Not to mention the virus is mutating and is now killing healthy people in their twenties in Hubei (if not at least serious disease requiring mechanical ventilation and supplemental oxygen). Also there is evidence the HIV drugs are no longer working due to the virus developing resistance.

Those of you thinking "oh I'm a healthy young person I'm just gonna carry on doing what I'm doing" is gonna be in for a rude awakening.

[mda]

Please stop spreading speculation, there is absolutely no evidence of a more deadly mutated version of virus.

[hurrdurr2]

https://archive.is/GPVv4

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

[mda]

Speculation, no evidence.

[virgilp]

My understanding was that this virus has a molecular proofreading system that reduces its mutation rate, and makes it unlikely to develop a more deadly strain - was this dispelled in any way?

Can't find exactly where I read it but it's e.g. mentioned here: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...

[bencollier49]

Sources?

[hurrdurr2]

https://archive.fo/pgxDl

https://archive.is/zImUv

[retsibsi]

Maybe I'm just looking for comfort, but this passage (from your first link) seems like a big logical leap to me:

> The fact that patients not displaying symptoms are able to transmit the coronavirus indicates something alarming. As typically such respiratory viruses are normally transmitted thru the mouth via coughing in which minute droplets are exposed or thru the nose when the nasal fluids are released through sneezing or blowing of the nose.

> If a person is not showing any symptoms, then the only possible means is through the exhaled air of the infected individual, which implies that the virus is an extremely potent airborne pathogen.

People who aren't sick still cough/sneeze/blow their nose sometimes. (Especially so in the case of people with allergies, but everyone does it a bit.)

And surely people could transmit the disease through saliva (or other fluids) spread via their hands. People touch their face, pick their teeth, eat with their hands, pick their nose, bite their nails, etc. etc.

Then there is the possibility of transmission through shared meals, or even inadequately washed cutlery etc.

Don't get me wrong, asymptomatic spread is scary, and it probably provides some evidence in favour of airborne transmission. But I don't see how they can make such an absolute statement, when there seem to be other available explanations.

[hurrdurr2]

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/...

[loblollyboy]

This, unfortunately

[hurrdurr2]

A 25 year old nurse just passed away in Iran battling the virus.

https://mobile.twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/123245395758...