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by LeifCarrotson 2311 days ago
It's just 2^24 for probability 1/2, right?
1 comments

It’s a different calculation Matt is doing. You are calculating the probability of that run happening now. Matt is calculating the expected length of the longest run in 1 million tosses.
Exactly! (Thanks!)

The distinction is important because a sequence of ten heads seems 'rare' in isolation. However, it is not particularly unusual when you go looking for it as a subsequence of some bigger set of trials.