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by ljw1001
2319 days ago
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> The virus has been in the wild in a number of countries outside China (Singapore, Japan, Thailand, etc), yet to date local transmission has petered out and there's no sign of massive outbreaks happening. This argues for a much lower R0... While I agree with your other points, the idea that transmission in Japan is petering out is wildly optimistic and not what epidemiologists in Japan are saying. Unfortunately, you can couple that with the possibility of transmission in states where the medical infrastructure is especially weak (in Africa, for example, where millions of Chinese people work). |
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Does that take the Diamond Princess cases into account, or just the others (66 last time I checked, and IMO the most important ones are the cases reported outside the group of people who were repatriated and quarantined)? IMO it is clear that keeping all those people in close quarters in the cruise ship wasn't the best idea after all (because interactions keep on occurring, and thus infections keep on spreading).
I also don't find the story of the health officer infected for "10 minutes contact" (or so the NHK says) very credible, or at best, it is a stochastic event.
A real problem is instead that, for outside infections, people kept on working and having contact with others despite being sick.
I don't want to downplay the issue at all, but as far as I can see the Japanese press (I can't say much about the actual people living there) going absolutely hysterical over this (but it was the same with H1N1 back in the days). The government then follows suit.