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by hnews_account_1 2307 days ago
People actually in the field don't trust the CPI number as gospel. We all know its shortcomings. However, the CPI print does move the market, so while it is good to keep track of the real inflation number by our own methodologies (which generally involves a different weighing scheme since the real CPI already accounts for most consumer products), you hardly trade on it.

For example, people have been shouting that inflation has already screamed past the Federal Reserve's target (of 2%) if the weight to medicare costs was increased to reflect the true spending of an average consumer(i.e. medicare is a bigger % of expenses of the avg consumer than reflected by the CPI weight). However, the fed refutes that argument and says that its current measure isn't perfect but neither is the solution proposed.

Currently they are looking at something called the Stock Watson model to see if it provides a better gauge. So by no means is it a settled science.