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by hnews_account_1
2320 days ago
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Most people already know this. All estimates made within spreadsheets are based on averages. Nothing left tail is ever considered more than a small probability event. In general, they make 3 different models - bull case, bear case and normal. Even the bear case will just project a negative 2 sigma possibility at most. Nothing too much black swan is accounted for cos it'll just drag down estimates considerably and the rest of the happy-go-lucky market will keep pumping up prices while you sit and stare at your low price target that was achieved weeks ago. |
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