[vanusa]

This point is that these dips in some neighborhoods a basically negligible against a backdrop of an overall affordability situation which is extremely bleak for most people who live in the city. And quite different from how things were 20 years ago or more.

It's like -- okay, a 1BR in a reasonably accessible neighborhood now costs $2600 instead of $2700. What are we talking about here?

[formercoder]

20+ years ago there was much more crime and living in the city was not desirable

[vanusa]

I should have said "about 12 years or more."

The tipping point for crime was around 1996-1997. After that, murders (while a bit higher) were much closer to current levels.

After that there was about a 12 year period (until 2010) when rents weren't nearly as high as they are now -- around 40 percent lower across the board; and some neighborhoods have basically "flipped" and seen their median rents double.

The point is, from around 1998-2010 the city was about as "desirable" as it is now -- but significantly more affordable. To get affordability back to those levels -- we'd have to see something like a 30 to 40 percent reduction throughout the system.

It seems unlikely that would happen, even given the most ambitious upzoning, and the most wildly optimistic increases in inventory anyone could reasonably hope for.