| HN Mirror

Title: Will Apple, Facebook or Google Control The AR Momentum?

Article: “I wouldn’t be surprised if one day or another somebody says, ‘This is the future of gaming,'” reports Facebook’s head of virtual reality Omid Kordestani. And Kordestani admitted his past job of building from within the company is atypical for a big CEO (typical of Facebook) who may need to shape the future of a business outside the core team. He may find out how much of the potential of AR is already in its top app Facebook, where developers can shoot 3D models of stuffed animals or preschool objects in front of anyone’s faces, and how deeply Google was disrupted when its failed to move fast enough on VR before Facebook entered it.

But what it’s possible for Facebook and Apple to do is to lead the charge to develop a hardware- and/or software-independent AR ecosystem of platforms and apps. An Android-powered AR headset, which seems like it’s on its way, could eventually compete with Google Cardboard, and maybe provide its own open-source AR platform. Why not have Windows Embedded system OEMs build AR goggles and similar headsets, as they already sell hardware that can run augmented reality apps?

That could attract hardware companies like Dell, Asus, HP and Lenovo, as well as game consoles like Microsoft’s Xbox and Sony’s PlayStation. If Microsoft can muscle AR technology directly into the living room, it could make Oculus Rift obsolete. It could also entice developers away from Google’s $99 Daydream View AR headset which depends on smartphone technology, by throwing its weight behind hardware based on Windows 10. Meanwhile, Apple could cut out the middleman by making a standalone AR headset, although it already has a separate ARKit platform to create AR-themed apps for the iPhone and iPad. That way it could create a high-end AR headset for hardcore users like the kind of top manufacturers like LG, Sony, Samsung and Asus produce for their televisions and other gear.

At the same time, we’ll probably be stuck with Google’s Cardboard and Facebook’s Cardboard for a while. Google Cardboard’s track record is decent, and the ability to use Cardboard makes it easy to download and use a few AR apps that show other content than just pictures or blocks of text. Cardboard also does an excellent job of getting the platform out to more people than any other headset, with 45.8 million devices activated. But that’s less than half the number of Android-powered phones in the world as Android was running in early 2017. And from a hardware perspective, Google has a big advantage over Facebook, with plenty of current smartphones on its Cardboard list, including phones from Chinese manufacturers Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Coolpad.

Then again, Google’s Cardboard headsets have started rolling out to more devices, and Google has been open about the likelihood of an Android-powered Cardboard headset, touting the dual displays and better cameras that now ship with the Pixel. While the hardware definitely isn’t there yet for it to take the lead in AR, Google seems to be confident it can make it happen and give users the compelling AR app experiences they want.

Meanwhile, neither Apple nor Facebook has the fragmentation problems with apps or hardware needed to dominate AR, which could be killer differentiators. Apple, by the way, has super serious ambitions to produce its own AR technology. The growing possibility that Apple is making such a headset may finally make it uncomfortable for Apple to cede this killer platform to Google.

When a platform war erupts like iPhone and Android, it’s going to take everyone’s best devices to achieve victory. There may be companies that switch allegiances, but that would only make it more possible for Apple, Facebook, and Google to enter it just as one platform would. But how long will that last, and will Apple, Facebook or Microsoft be the ones to seize the battlefield?

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