| I partially agree with you. You're definitely right about the industrial revolution, and I hope you're right about the information revolution. However, I think there's a real possibility that, in the near future, automation will lead to a permanent increase in unemployment. Even if general AI proves to be a long way away (which I think it is), a lot of service jobs are algorithmic enough that they could became automated in the next few decades. If true, you end up with a small elite business/management class which finds themselves far wealthier than before; a few people who managed to hold onto their old jobs (domestic cleaners, plumbers, etc) or find new 'creative' jobs; and a vast unemployed underclass. In theory with all our new machine-created wealth the entire underclass could live very comfortably on welfare. However, the way most societies are set up, that's unlikely to happen. The economic pie gets bigger but the people at the top suddenly find themselves with even more power and get an even bigger slice, and the people at the bottom get screwed. I think this guy makes a fairly convincing argument: http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm If you have the time, his scifi novella about the social impacts of mass job loss due to automation is also OK (like a lot of amateur scifi, some of the writing and characterisation is pretty bad, but the ideas are interesting). Worth a read if you have the time.
http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm Season 2 of the Wire also touches on similar themes. (It's obviously not sci-fi, but it made me rethink my belief that "automation is fine, people just need to not be so picky about finding new jobs"). |
So far, the exact opposite of this has occurred. The economic pie has gotten vastly bigger, inequality has increased significantly, and welfare has done nothing but grow.