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by Traster
2324 days ago
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This is the problem, no one believes the draw backs of leaving the EU even when businesses are literally pulling out of the country and directly saying it's because of regulatory divergence. It used to be that you could access 500m customers with one set of regulations. Now you can access 450m customers with one set of regulations, and you can access 60m with another, as yet undefined, set of regulations that are guaranteed to change over the next few years. It doesn't take a genius to see that that uncertainty is going to take a toll on business, but it does take a planet brain genius to know that's happening, hear from actually businesses making decisions based on it, and then decide it's not really an issue. |
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For instance, Goldman Sachs repeatedly claimed they'd be moving their business to Frankfurt in the case of a Leave vote. They even funded the Remain campaign. Now they leased their HQ in London for 25 years: https://news.sky.com/story/goldman-sachs-commits-to-uk-despi... - apparently not planning to leave the country after all.
The EU Commission said it would ban EU companies from trading with British financial in the wake of Brexit. The IMF said it would "cripple" the UK. Brexit supporters said that cutting off the EU from all British financial services would be so self-defeating the Commission wouldn't do it. I was skeptical personally, but so far they were proven right. The Commission keeps extending the so-called "financial passport": https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/02/eu-threats-c...
N26 say they're leaving because of Brexit, but chose to enter after they knew Brexit had been voted for and the process was well under way. How likely is it this is true, vs N26 failing in the market but being run by a bunch of Remainers who want to deliver a "fuck you"? If they really only just realised now Brexit was happening then they are a monumentally incapable company.
By the way, the EU's unified financial regulation creates problems as well as solutions. For instance it prevented British regulators from stepping in to prevent the foreseen collapse of Icelandic banks. The Icelandic government ended up not having sufficient funds to bail them out. It's discussed here:
https://leftfootforward.org/2016/09/brexit-is-the-financial-...
The government's recommendations after that incident were basically to introduce caveats and more regional control over financial regulation.