[ardy42]

> It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported.

Definitely. IIRC, to be counted in the official statistics, an infected person has to have significant contact with the medical system, but the medical system in Wuhan has been so overloaded that people have been turned away in large numbers so that diagnostic work is not being done in many cases. There are reports of many people dying at home in Wuhan, which wouldn't be counted as part of the official statistics.

I've also heard reports that the crematoriums in Wuhan are also overloaded, and aren't allowed to report any statistics except to the government.

I don't think we'll know the full impact for a long time, until someone can some kind of excess mortality study with individualized vital records.

[tim333]

If I were betting I'd bet over 5x https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavi...

[ardy42]

I'm skeptical of the Chinese government's statistics, but I'm also skeptical of those sources:

https://www.ccn.com/about-us/:

> CCN.com, also known as CCN Markets, was founded in the summer of 2013 in Norway by serial entrepreneur Jonas Borchgrevink as “CryptoCoinsNews.com”.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/a-site-t...:

> A Site Tied To Steve Bannon Is Writing Fake News About The Coronavirus

> Founded by an exiled billionaire and critic of the Chinese government, G News claimed without proof that China was prepared to admit the disease originated in its labs.

[tim333]

Yeah I'll give you that. I'd guess the truth is somewhere in the middle. That said the basic claim "... alleges Wuhan has crematoriums working 24/7" seems backed by other sources. Even the Chinese government admits it's figures are only tested cases and they can't test everyone.