[camillomiller]

One point missing that I think could be important even in the more worrying scenarios is the average health condition or age of the people who develop severe stage infection. If the CFR is high but people dying are mostly old and not of working age, the pandemic will create a drag on global economy but not as bad as the CFR might lead to suppose. Don’t mean to sound cynical, just putting another element into the equation.

[Accujack]

1) This is an ignorant statement, there are plenty of people in the 55+ age range who work worldwide.

2) Simply having workers get incapacitated is one of the smallest impacts the virus will have. Take a look at the present price of crude oil - the effects of the epidemic in China are already sending that crashing.

Quarantines, the need for medical supplies, lost work hours, elimination of disposable income, an economic downturn worldwide as products become harder to get and more expensive to transport... there are lots and lots of impacts this will have, including vastly increased unemployment.

Even if no one at all dies, a pandemic with the world getting sick all at the same time will have an impact bigger than any other event going back to World War II.