It seems your position is that the response is the trigger not the initial aggression. How did WW2 start? With Hitler invading Poland or was that fine, and UK/France bear the blame of the WW2 by declaring war on hitler in response?
Its a somewhat educated guess if they would but I meant who answer who might. I personally anticipate an escalation of tensions along NATO / non-NATO lines and exploitation of destabilized regions. It's almost inevitable, classic Thucydides trap combined with NATO.
Depends. Iran has (allegedly) committed what could be constituted as acts of war already. With the US in a heightened state of engagement in direct conflict with China and possibly regional actors, the Gulf of Oman seems like a great place to touch off a regional conflict.
...their population isn’t a big fan of their governance.
Why would you believe this? The last time they didn't like their government, they replaced it with the current government. Even the Ayatollah was pissed off that they mistakenly shot down a plane full of Iranians; they weren't about to curb the relatively limited public demonstrations that agreed with him on that topic.
Oh, let me guess... you learned of the average Iranian's great political discontent from the USA war media. "Wishful thinking disguised as reporting" leads to wishful thinking in place of analysis.