[scottlocklin]

I guess we're arguing because I deny that there has been appreciable progress. Most of what passes for "progress" in tech and ML is simply adoption of old ideas, or improvements in lithography. Along with forgetting vastly more important ideas. IMO the most important real world idea in ML in current year, defined as "being used and changing how people solve problems" is not deep learning (God Bless Yann), it is Boosting; a 30 year old idea. For that matter, the most important stuff for future progress isn't deep learning either; it's a basket of ideas that hasn't congealed into a name yet (stuff like Volodya Vovk and pals, as well as Gunnar Carlson work on).

All that said; I 100% agree with you, the fruits of supervised learning will entirely accrue to oligarchs, governments and other such dirtbags who have the databases to fit against, do not have the well being of average people in mind. If we notice at all, it will be via blackmail, creepy ad tracking and late night knocks at the door.

[bryanlarsen]

Appreciable progress often comes through the adoption of old ideas. Something that only works in the lab if you squint at it carefully isn't useful; something that only 3 people know about isn't useful; but something that works reliably in the field is useful, even if their are no appreciable differences between them.