[wsetchell]

Waymo has the best technology in self driving.

They have not deployed their tech at scale, when competitors (Tesla) has widely deployed worse technology.

Even if they deploy their tech widely, it isn't clear it will generate significant revenue/profit. It might not be that expensive (think less than 1B) to build a good enough self driving car in 10 years. That'd create competition and drive down prices.

Someone else might figure out how to capture the value of self driving cars too. Maybe the profitable parts of self driving cars are the "apps" you can build once self driving cars are cheap.

I wouldn't invest in Waymo at 100B until they have a real business with real revenue and a real moat to protect that business.