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by anonuser123456 2326 days ago
>I’m a climate change skeptic almost entirely because I don’t trust models.

You don't have to believe the models:

https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf

2 comments

My argument to this would be that changing our world because of a faulty model system would be disastrous. Because of the advancements of the last two centuries more people have had food and water and basic necessities being met then at any time in history (and yet we still have billions suffering). Worsening their lives over something that might not happen is not a good way to run the world. The models being accurate is important so that if we do implement policy that end up worsening people’s lives we have proof that it is worth it.
The models being accurate is important so that if we do implement policy that end up worsening people’s lives we have proof that it is worth it.

The models differ in the scale of how bad it's going to be, not on whether it's going to be bad. Your stance is kind of like saying "Well doc, you're telling me I have sepsis, but you can't tell me how bad that's going to be so I'm refusing treatment until you can improve your models."

The current consensus on the impact of climate is NOT "something that might not happen".

Climate change is happening right now, with effects that are observable as trends across the globe. Even the most optimistic model is predicting widespread catastrophe.

That is essentially the same argument than in the Pascal's wager https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager
Not really.

Pascal's wager has no information. You know nothing of the state of god's existence.

The precautionary principle uses current equalibrium as the default.

The current working equalibrium embeds information.

The precautionary principle does not state it will result in the best outcome. Only that it's more likely to not have the worst.