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by ithinkinstereo 2322 days ago
The comparison to 80s/late-90s USSR is poor. I think this epidemic is showing the opposite, at least in terms of technical competence. The response from the central authorities has been massive and relatively well executed.

The comparison is also off because the day-to-day living situation on the ground (for the average citizen) is totally different from _both_ a political and economic perspective.

3 comments

The response might not have needed to be as massive if the initial reaction of the Chinese authorities hadn't been to send the police after the doctors who discovered the problem[1] and try to hush it up.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world/asia/china-coronavi...

Maybe, maybe not. I think the contrast to past epidemics is stark and shows the government is willing to learn and improve.

In any case, the comparison to Chernobyl and 80s USSR is pretty off-base, wouldn't you agree?

Understanding the exponential fiction is key here. You can do 50x times as much effort with great technical ability and execution a month and a half later, it will barely be as effective as telling people to be careful a month and a half earlier.
The comparison fits in that a tendency to hide bad news (i.e. swallow errors and suppress warnings) erodes trust in (edit: and effectiveness of) the system.
Well, if we are to nitpick.... apples and oranges are both round!

Yes, there are certainly similarities between the USSR and China. But if we are to be objective and fact-oriented here, comparing China today to the USSR in the 80s and its response to this epidemic to the USSR's in Chernobyl, is a big stretch.

> Yes, there are certainly similarities between the USSR and China.

You are reading my comment in a shortsighted way. Note how the second part of the sentence mentions the US under GWBush - obviously I'm not arguing 2000s US and 2020s China are similar in political or economic structure. The point is how political consensus with fascist characteristics, that had looked unbreakable until then, can quickly be upended by crisis when the system is shown as uncapable to guarantee personal safety.

There’s no question that China does not have many of the catastrophic dysfunctions seen in the USSR. There did seem to be some attempt at a coverup or miscommunication early on, which no doubt made things much worse - but the response since has been at a level that would be quite hard to achieve in most other countries. This is an example of a case where centralized control really shines.
Do you think we know the truth about anything? The cause? The response? The scale?